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" ... An area I continue to be worried about are companies’ rosy assumptions about their Earnings Before Interest Tax and Depreciation (EBITDA). According to the Office of Financial Research (OFR), earnings adjustments (also called EBITDA add-backs) often took “the form of projected cost savings added back to profits for the purpose of increasing projected profits and lowering the borrower’s leverage, or debt-to-EBITDA ratio.” The Financial Stability Board has stated that these add-backs “were generally uncertain, in both magnitude and timing, and may overstate a borrower’s EBITDA and thus understate its leverage.” Standard and Poor’s in a review of companies’ EBITDA adjustments for 31 transactions in 2016 showed that, on average, the companies’ projections were over 30% higher than their actual EBITDA. ... "
" ... By removing these costs, ININ is able to understate the profit decline that has occurred since 2010. For example, since 2010, ININ’s non-GAAP net income has declined from $26 million to $1 million in 2015. While trending downwards, ININ still reported a positive non-GAAP net income in 2015. In contrast, ININ’s GAAP net income has fallen from $15 million in 2010 to -$22 million in 2015 and economic earnings have declined from $12 million in 2010 to -$26 million in 2015. See Figure 2. ... "
" ... There are two unemployment assistance programs: the regular state programs and the PUA (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance), created by the CARES Act (and scheduled to disappear on December 31st without Congressional action – now expected). The data show some improvement for the week of November 28th, most likely because of the exhaustion of eligibility, not because of an improving jobs market. Note that the data for the two programs, nine months into the pandemic is still in-excess of a million (see chart). This is a measure of weekly layoffs! And if we look at Continuing Claims, i.e., people who have been collecting for more than a week, the total of state and PUA claims remain in-excess-of 20 million! (see chart) The slight downtrend in this chart, too, is more likely due to benefit exhaustion than an improvement in the job market. So, the charts, dire as they are, likely understate the true picture. ... "
" ... To say that the COVID-19 crisis has altered the marketing landscape is to understate the matter enormously. Many business owners today feel like survivors of a sinking ship who were forced to take refuge in a lifeboat — their only real goal is to make it to safety any way they can. ... "
" ... While erupting volcanoes bring about their own challenges and concerns for locals - which, I, as a Hawaii resident, don’t want to understate here - the news will understandably bring a glow to the eyes of potential visitors. Indeed, one of the top attractions of the Big Island’s tourism industry has been the fascination and wonder associated with its five volcanoes. With the pandemic crushing tourism in Hawaii for most of 2020, a renewed interest in the volcanoes could be a welcome boost for 2021. ... "