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" ... Misforecasting Q4 can be a make-or-break situation for a startup selling physical goods. On one hand, you can’t sell what you don’t have, so underforecasting will cause you to lose sales because you haven’t invested in sufficient inventory to fulfill customer orders. And since Q4 acts as a natural “nurse log” for the following year's sales, your lost revenues will be compounded by a reduction in your starting point for growth over the next year. On the other hand, overforecasting can eat up cash and severely restrict your degrees of freedom — a situation that has rapidly killed many an e-commerce startup. ... "