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" ... "Markets are now hoping for–and trading on–a smooth election, a big stimulus, the end of the pandemic and the economy being back to 2019 normal early next year. If all that happens, then current prices, based on interest rates staying low, appear supportable," says McMillan, "Right now, it seems like some of the good news might not happen... While the economy continues to recover, more damage is pending as multiple industries are now facing deadlines to downsize and as more and more people exhaust their savings and earlier stimulus payments." ... "
" ... Except for one thing. A sales tax, charged just the once at that final retail point, is too high a tax to be supportable. There will be far too many people trying to get around the system. For that level of tax you need to be gaining the support of the entire production chain. Everyone is interested in making sure that the next stage down the line is indeed charged VAT so that they have the paperwork to be able to reclaim that portion that they've paid out. We get the same amount of money in theory but in practice get more as there's less leakage out of the system. ... "
" ... The fundamentals suggest that Mr. Market, although not factually wrong about his concerns during the recent bearish personality phase, may have been over the top in having chosen what to concentrate on. The in-process transition to a bullish personality is quite supportable based on the broader constellation of company metrics. ... "
" ... The real danger in 2019 is not that a swiftly left-tilting City Council gets replaced with rational people who have a good sense of how the economy works, but that they’ll be replaced with housing hardliners who see growth and homelessness as harmful to the equity in their homes. Seattle’s dance with civic destruction may turn from a slow and awkward waltz to a frenzied mosh pit of retrograde housing policies that would ensure San Francisco prices well into the next decade. Can the business community find some solid pro-supply economic principles, create a supportable message for voters, and elect a pro-growth majority? Right now, it's too early to tell. ... "
" ... To say it again: the NYT celebrates that people will pay $38 billion for access to a scarce resource. They then also say that this isn't a scarce resource that needs to be optimally allocated, it must be used on a come one come all basis. Either one of those ideas is supportable alone but to believe both I guess you've got to be a Very Serious Person. ... "