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" ... At the conclusion of the trial, it was reported that GJP forecasts were 30 percent more accurate than the intelligence community. In short, a small team of “superforecasters” – most of them retired professionals that participated in the project as an interesting hobby, outperformed the multi-billion dollar intelligence community’s 20,000 analysts. Further, they had no access to classified information! ... "
" ... So, companies may be able to nurture more “superforecasters” – but how can they maximize their impact within the organization? One logical strategy might be to assemble these lone-wolf prediction savants into “superteams” – and in fact, coalitions of the highest-performing predictors did outperform individual “superforecasters”. However, this was only true if the groups also had additional attributes, like a “culture of sharing” and diligent attention to avoiding “groupthink” among their members, none of which can be taken for granted, especially in a large organization. “A busy executive might think “I want some of those” and imagine the recipe is straightforward,” Tetlock wryly observes about these “superteams”. “Sadly, it isn’t that simple.” A bigger question for companies is whether even individual “superforecasters” could survive the toxic trappings of modern corporate life. The GJP’s experimental bubble lacked the competitive promotion policies, dysfunctional managers, bonus-defining annual reviews and forced rankings that complicate the pure, single-minded quest for fact-based decision-making in many organizations. All too often, as Tetlock ruefully notes, “the goal of forecasting is not to see what’s coming. It is to advance the interest of the forecaster and the forecaster’s tribe,” [original emphasis] and it’s likely many would find it difficult to reconcile the key tenets of “superforecasting” with their personal and professional aspirations. ... "
" ... The book goes into detail about the process you can use to not only improve your own forecast accuracy and insight, but to build super forecasting teams. What Good Judgment Inc does is help organizations do exactly that: improve individual forecasting, build super forecasting teams, and – where appropriate – outsource their questions to our network of professional superforecasters. ... "