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" ... One of the odder effects of last Thursday's vote by my fellow Britons to leave the European Union (Yay!) is to delay any future Federal Reserve interest rate rise in the United States. This isn't quite what you would expect from a standing start analysis of the global economy. Britain no longer gets ruled by Brussels, why should this change American interest rates? But a side effect of this is that both the pound and the euro have fallen in value against the US dollar. Just as this is stimulatory to the British and European economies this is (marginally) contractionary for the US economy. Thus there's little point, even it is contra-indicated, that the Fed should apply yet more contractionary monetary policy by raising interest rates. And thus the reason that a political decision thousands of miles away leads to an economic decision in the US. ... "
" ... The market expects interest rates to remain at stimulatory levels until year end. And then next year will see higher rates. Still, if Brazil is climbing out of the pandemic by then, and if the commodity cycle is still strong, there is nothing but wind at Brazil’s back. ... "
" ... To make that same point in another manner. Floating exchange rates are not a problem that have to be managed away by a single currency. Floating exchange rates are the solution to many woes. As with here. The concerns about Britain leaving the EU had the possibility of creating a recession, certainly that uncertainty could have done that. But that change in the exchange rate is exactly the thing, as a result of that uncertainty, that prevents it by providing a stimulatory boost to the economy. ... "