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" ... And in this model fracking for tight oil over turns this basic reality of resource extraction. Price is, of course, driven by the marginal supply and or demand. And fracking doesn't require vast investments, nor does it take a long time to get going. Say that North American tight oil is only profitable at $50 or $60 a barrel. So, oil heads up to $80 say. At which point people can start spudding wells again: and they will. That oil comes online in a few months at most, they make their money in the first 18 months and they're happy. But that marginal production means that we're simply not going to see the vast variation in oil price of the past. What fracking has done is given us a marginal producer not subject to long lead times or high capital requirements. And thus the elasticity of supply with respect to price is much greater than it has historically been. Meaning that the price variations dependent upon that low elasticity are going to be dampened. ... "