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" ... I see several of the players in American International Group finally closed out positions. This was supposed to be a classic reallocation of assets story as well as a turnaround play in the fire and casualty sector. Happening very slowly. Carl Icahn sold out an 11% holding. Herbalife Nutrition now is at 11% of this $20 billion fund. How rationalize Icahn’s sale of Apple and then Buffett’s huge buy? ¿Quién sabe? ... "
" ... The Amazon enigma centers on where revenues seem headed. Its AWS sector (the cloud) now earns as much as their basic e-commerce business, which is split between the U.S. and international. But offshore revenues, half as much as North America, earn zilch. When does a revenue base over $60 billion start to earn serious money? ¿Quién sabe? Bezos gives us no clue. The cloud business earns as much as e-commerce. How do you model both sectors? You can’t creep into Bezos’s brain, alas! ... "
" ... The state of economic forecasting, Street punditry and FRB policy emphasis are as wishy-washy as they get. Does GDP languish at 1% or cruise at 3%? Are 10-year Treasuries headed to a zero return? ¿Quién sabe? The Fed is a lagging, not leading indicator. ... "
" ... The work was attributed to one or more of Leonardo’s numerous students, and not sold then as a da Vinci. It made around $100 at auction in 1958. Later, there was a 5-year interval of cleaning and viewing by the trade. By 2013, an art consortium sold it for $80 million to a Swiss dealer who then tapped the Russian fertilizer billionaire for $127 million. After parsing Isaacson’s impeccably researched biography, I denote a shade of skepticism therein. ¿Quién sabe? ... "
" ... ¿Quién sabe? This is a leveraged capitalization. Right now, there is plenty of stretch in steel capacity, an industry with excess worldwide capacity for as far back as I can remember. Only a surging recovery in worldwide GDP next couple of years makes me wrong. ... "