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" ... Credit quality is central to the story. Twenty-eight Aristocrats sit in the top credit quintile of the S&P 500, but only 13 of the Select Dividend Index's members do. Meanwhile, a higher proportion of the ... "
" ... One salient observation from the last quarter-century is that when the unemployment rate gets below four percent, the wages of people at the bottom quintile start to increase precipitously. At that rate genuine labor shortages for low-skilled and entry level jobs develop, and firms must pay more to attract these workers—or else find people who have been out of the labor market and persuade them to enter, and possibly train them as well. ... "
" ... Over the last 30 years, and since the Great Recession, the highest quintile earners’ share has risen rapidly at the expense of all the other 80%, i.e., the rich are getting richer. What has occurred during this time period? Easy money, and low interest rates. A continuation of perhaps the “easiest” money policy of all time has been promised by the Fed through at least 2023 (according to their official press releases, FOMC member statements, FOMC minutes, and their various exhibits). ... "
" ... With misleading earnings, a bottom quintile ROIC, and a PEBV ratio of 9.1, there are better stocks, from an earnings quality and valuation perspective, available in the market. ... "