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" ... If you just go by the stock market, it might be hard to understand how the Fed could keep rates at zero into 2022 or even beyond. The fact is, there’s an incredible hole the economy needs to dig out of, and even with stimulus and vaccinations starting it could be a very dark winter. Shutdowns have already led to slower hiring, according to the government’s last payrolls report, and some analysts believe that disappointing data didn’t fully reflect all the layoffs seen in November. That means December’s data might be worse. Inflation shows no sign of moving either, which means there’s even less pressure on the Fed to hike anytime soon. ... "
" ... Not So Great Expectations? Next week features a heavy data calendar, with construction spending, October auto sales, factory orders, and—last but probably first in investors’ hearts—next Friday’s October payrolls report. We’ll provide some insight next week into how payrolls might shape up. First, though, there’s one more data item before this week ends: University of Michigan sentiment. This one keys off a consumer sentiment report from Tuesday that looked pretty decent from a headline perspective but troubling when you dug into the numbers. ... "
" ... That’s well in the future, so let’s look at what faces investors next week. Nothing stands out as much as next Friday’s monthly payrolls report, and more eyes are focused on it after these last two weeks of rising jobless claims that suggest the recovery has slowed. October saw 638,000 new jobs created, but the headline figure is down several months in a row, and some analysts are even wondering if eventually it could go negative. ... "
" ... The fresh evidence of this came in the form of the U.S. ADP data, which was released yesterday. It confirmed that the U.S. labor market had taken a U-turn once again, and more Americans are off the payrolls again. The U.S. ADP numbers are usually taken as a clue for the mother of all economic data, the U.S. nonfarm payroll data, which is due tomorrow. One important factor to notice is that the stock market didn’t pay much attention to the U.S. ADP number yesterday because of the chaos at Capitol Hill. However, tomorrow’s economic number isn’t going to be ignored by market players because of its enormous importance. ... "
" ... Tomorrow brings the biggest data of the week when investors get a look at November payrolls. As a reminder, Wall Street analysts, on average, think about 650,000 jobs were created last month, up from 638,000 in October. However, estimates are pretty widespread, with some analysts saying they expect job growth not much above 500,000. It’s a hard number to estimate because different states have different rules. It looks like it might be one of those fluid Friday mornings where traders need to stay on their toes as everyone studies all the numbers. ... "