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" ... Another possible argument is that because of technological advances, D&A overstates the cost of replacing property and equipment. While valid in principal, perpetually declining property and equipment strikes me as another matter. In this regard, computing the reinvestment rate as the ratio of CapEx to Unlevered Cash Flows will produce a terminal growth rate of 3% for Amazon, as the Credit Suisse team assumes. However, doing so is incorrect, as the ratio needs to feature variables that are net of depreciation. That is why balance sheet total assets feature net assets, not gross assets. That is why earnings are reported net of depreciation expenses. So, if I am missing something, I would welcome an explanation, especially from the Credit Suisse analyst team. ... "
" ... Cabrera is batting .282-.349-.342; his batted ball metrics suggest he "should be" hitting .265-.331-.422. That's with a perfectly representative liner rate, and a 150 Adjusted Grounder Score that likely overstates his production within that batted-ball type. The only hope? His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 80 could move upward assuming his biceps isn't quite 100% yet. ... "
" ... Looking only at the 2019 return overstates what the stock market has been doing. That misleading view can lead to one of two investor mistakes: ... "
" ... Many economists argue that our most closely watched indicator of inflation, the consumer price index (CPI), is biased and overstates inflation. In December 1996, a group of economists appointed by the Senate Finance Committee reported on a study of the CPI and estimated that the index overstates annual inflation by about 1.1 percentage points (Boskin, et al. 1996); so, instead of the official 2.8% rate of inflation in 1996, it might have been 1.7%. ... "
" ... Murray: Many value investors use some form of “mean reversion” in their approach to setting price targets, assuming that over the long run, returns will revert to their long-term averages. But in the case of brick-and-mortar retailers, although some look quite inexpensive when applying historic P/E multiples to current earnings, we believe that this frequently far overstates the value of these businesses given the secular challenges many of them face. In addition, a number of them have many years of significant lease obligations, which aren’t properly accounted for in their stated enterprise values. These obligations impede the companies’ ability to restructure their store bases and are a call on future cash flows. ... "