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" ... As a technology matures, however, it eventually overshoots the raw performance that many customers need. As a result, new disruptive innovations emerge that are more modular—or unbundled—as customers become less willing to pay for things like power and increased reliability but instead prioritize the ability to customize affordably by mixing and matching different pieces that fit together according to precise standards. ... "
" ... Of course, this shouldn't come as much of a surprise. The Fed had laid out the plan to achieve an “average” of 2%—meaning necessary target overshoots would be OK. So, after the markets tumbled for two straight days after the CPI report, the market once again advanced strongly last Thursday and Friday. The question is whether “transitory” inflation might lay the groundwork for longer-term inflation in the future. At that point we might see the hawks circling the skies again as the Fed tries to transition from its current "not even thinking about thinking about rate hikes" stance. ... "
" ... The cycle starts when oil prices rise and investors surge into the space. Spending is rife, and new technologies get rolled out to maximize advantage. Inevitably, the good days are too good. Costs rise. Supply overshoots demand. Investors bolt. ... "
" ... The path back to an upper pane growing economy with some inflation will now be pushed out, more volatile, and will need to bring investors back from the ledge. I recommend that portfolios hold 5-10% gold in case the Federal Reserve overshoots its stimulus and because there are negative real rates. Don’t abandon stocks; it’s too late. Wait for volatility to calm, assess the economy, and stay invested. Finally, my homework should be everyone’s homework: With a 1.1% ten-year bond, what place do government bonds have in an asset allocation portfolio? And, what’s the replacement? More on this soon! ... "