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" ... (In any case, if you ever wondered – as I once did, naively – why anyone with access to a Bloomberg terminal couldn’t construct their own index like the S&P 500… Now you have some idea.) ... "
" ... Momentum and Sentiment are not direct measures of growth expectations. They’re indirect clues of the “because-they-believe” variety; i.e. the data is what it is because they believe such and such good things about the company’s future. Consider, for example, the Chaikin Money Flow technical indicator. It combines price direction and volume data to come up with a measure of money flowing into or out of a stock. Can you imagine a scenario in which investors don’t have favorable expectations about a company (and Wall Street expectations, one way or another, usually relate to future growth) yet this indicator is strongly positive? I can’t either. Yes, investors can be wrong, but it helps nobody to naively assume that. Certainties are never on the table. But clues (along the lines of past persistence or wisdom of crowds) can be useful, especially when combined with other kinds of clues (Value, Quality). ... "
" ... The current pandemic exposes the disconnect between our existing skills and the skills that employers need today and in the future. This disconnect is just a symptom of a growing problem that challenges both individuals and organizations, like colleges and universities, employers and government. We all live in varying degrees of denial about how profoundly globalization, digitization and automation have fundamentally changed the social contracts between employees and employers. Why? We assume that this is a slow evolution of change and not a seismic disruption, or we naively believe that “the future” is always five to 10 years away and we have time to adapt. ... "
" ... These are examples of real estate investors naively applying analysis without measuring risk. Does it matter if the prospect is in a popular neighborhood or a war zone? Of course, because the location affects the risk profile. Buying the better location at 80% of the after-repair value may be a better deal than purchasing the war zone at 70% of the after-repair value. Risk is one of the most important factors in the analysis, but it’s rarely measured in a quantitative way. ... "
" ... Worse, it’s unnecessary. Was anyone naively calling for Congress to stimulate the economy in February of 2020? Obviously not. Americans weren’t locked down to varying degrees them. Duh! ... "