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" ... It turns out that you can calculate the risk reduction that comes from having safer robocars sooner very easily. You calculate how much safer they will be in the far future — let’s say twice as safe as humans in the US, or 1/250th of a micromort per mile — and you multiply that by the extra miles of human driving in the period you delay initial deployment. This presumes that by delaying initial deployment you similarly delay full saturation by the same amount of time. That’s not fully correct but it’s a good approximation. So if you delay that deployment by a year, as a result there will be — and this is a huge number — over half a trillion more micromorts of risk in the world, or around a half-million morts. Delay it by just a day and it’s 1.5 billion micromorts more risk the world will endure. We drive that much — by my count, around 1.7 light years every year, about the only way that light-years can be used as a unit of human activity. ... "