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" ... For the full-year 2020, due to paused productions, there will be a push in spend to next year. The management had previously estimated negative free cash flow of $2.5 billion and now it expects to be around negative $1.0 billion. Despite the “lumpiness” in free cash flow, management still believes 2019 will be the peak in annual FCF deficit. ... "
" ... Personally, I put more trust in these people who directly view economic data of the most basic kind—their own company’s revenues and costs—than I put in the government statistics with their monthly gyrations due to reporting irregularities, calendar lumpiness, and the vagaries of seasonal adjustments. For now, I believe the CFOs: the economy is gaining strength and 2015 will turn out to be a good economic year for the country. ... "
" ... You'll note that in 2002, 2006, and 2010, the company spent more on investments than it pulled in in profits. The average investment spending as a percentage of profits over this long time period is roughly 44%. We actually gave the firm the benefit of the doubt and modeled our projection of its investment spending at 35% of profits, simply because of the lumpiness of the firms investing history. ... "