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" ... 2. What does a full-employment U.S. economy look like and how far from it are we? To oversimplify things, I think we have in the neighborhood of about 1 million more potential workers who should be counted as labor market slack, and about 6 months to 1 year of recovery left. But there’s a ton of uncertainty here, especially because the trends and the cycles have been so closely intertwined post 2000. So here are the list of variables that I think there is an open debate about what the full-employment equilibrium will look like: prime aged participation, the unemployment rate, the homeowership rate, the householder rate, the labor share of income, and the birth rate. ... "