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" ... #5 - Charlie Morton (Rays) - Very quietly, Morton has developed into a dominant starter late in his career. He posted a 30.4% K rate in 2019, has a significant grounder tendency, and manages authority of all batted ball types well. His 85 Adjusted Contact Score tied for 6th in the AL last season. In a nine-start 2019 stretch, he posted a 1.48 ERA over 54 2/3 innings. Teammate Blake Snell is another consideration, though his health and consistency aren’t as airtight as Morton’s. ... "
" ... As in any no-hitter, there were a handful of defensive plays that helped make the difference, like the second out of the 7th inning when Tim Anderson fielded a tough grounder at short despite being shifted to the other side of second base and made the threw to Jose Abreu. Perhaps the biggest play came on the final out, when right fielder Adam Engel caught the Erik Gonzalez line drive that came off of his bat at 102.6 miles per hour and had an expected batting average of .850. Only Josh Bell’s lineout in the 4th inning came as close to being a hit. ... "
" ... Here’s a couple of quick notes for readers not familiar with my work to provide a frame of reference. Liner rates allowed are much more volatile from year to year than pop up, fly ball and grounder rates. Therefore, downward regression of Woodruff’s liner rate allowed could have been expected coming into 2020. ... "
" ... Hitters with pronounced upper-cut swings may in fact hit their fly balls very hard, while hitting their liners and grounders with much less authority. Hitters whose fly ball exit speeds > their liner speeds > their grounder speeds tend to be on borrowed time. It’s the ultimate “old player” skill set. We’ll get back to those guys later. ... "
" ... That’s not all. In an admittedly small sample size, Musgrove’s entire contact management profile changed in 2020. Previously, his batted ball type frequency profile was unremarkable, with no pop up, fly ball or grounder tendencies to speak of. In 2020, his fly ball rate dropped to 24.7%, over a half standard deviation below league average, while his pop up rate spiked upward to 6.5%, over a full standard deviation above league average. ... "