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" ... A Look Back at Democrat Trifectas: It’s interesting that expectations of a Democrat-controlled House, Senate, and White House sparked buying in equities yesterday. If you’ll recall, during the November elections, Wall Street was encouraged by expectations that a gridlocked government would forestall increased taxes and regulatory action that could pressure stock prices. Now, it seems, measures like those might have an easier time passing. But that doesn’t mean investors should necessarily worry. As investment research firm CFRA notes, it’s not unusual for first-term Democratic presidents to be supported by Democrat-controlled Congresses, and the stock market has tended to do well during those periods. “Should history repeat (although there’s no guarantee it will), investors may be unduly concerned about the effect of a Democratic majority on stocks and the economy,” according to CFRA. ... "
" ... Ambulance car speeds past gridlocked motor traffic on a London cycleway. ... "
" ... Let’s Review: With stocks near record highs, it might be worth reviewing what helped get us here considering we’re still in the grip of a pandemic that has wreaked havoc on the economy. For one thing, the Fed’s willingness to do whatever it can to help out the economy has created what’s called the “Fed put,” where investors tend to be willing to buy on dips thinking the central bank will come to the rescue if things go further south. Also, economic data has steadily been improving, with the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow annualized real GDP growth estimate for Q4 coming in at 3.5% on Friday compared with 2.2% on Oct. 30. Also, during October, analysts have been increasing their Q4 earnings estimates for SPX companies, according to FactSet. “While analysts typically lower EPS estimates during the first month of a quarter, they increased EPS estimates during the first month of Q4 2020,” according to the financial data provider. With that backdrop, the vaccine news and indications that investors are pleased with a potentially gridlocked Congress have been icing on the cake to help take the market higher. ... "
" ... My gut reaction is to say, who knows? But that comes more from my sense of the politics of the situation than of the economics. Determining what each party would like to do is not that complicated, nor is outlining what should be done (which, unfortunately, doesn’t align with either’s plans as much as I’d like). The trick is predicting what can actually be implemented in such a polarized and gridlocked Washington. ... "
" ... The balance of the Senate, however, is another matter. It was previously called for the Republicans. However, two runoff elections (both in Georgia) are slated for January. PredictIt is currently pricing in a 78% chance of at least one Republican victory, which would keep the Senate red and set us up for a “gridlocked” Congress. ... "