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" ... If AI is facing diminishing returns, however, this does not bode well for the cost of things. Again the oil field example provides a useful analogy. Early AI and related technology (satellites, gravitic detectors, 3D visualization software and so forth), when they started becoming widely deployed in the 1990s, made it possible to locate an oil field to within ten kilometers on land and perhaps twenty kilometers underwater. The AI resolution increased steadily, to the extent that this could be narrowed down to a resolution measured in perhaps tens of meters. This has been a boon to oil exploration, as each failed drilling represented a sunk cost of tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. ... "