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" ... Obviously, no two economic cycles are the same. Last year’s recession was caused by an exogenous shock – specifically COVID-19 – whereas the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) was caused by an overheated housing market and bank leverage concerns. It took a long time to deliver the appropriate policy prescription during the GFC, resulting in deep and long-lasting scarring. ... "
" ... Of the 261,000 jobs, about 55,000 were magically added by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) “Net Birth/Death Model” (the B/D Model). This is a mathematical algorithm that “estimates” net job growth from small business since the BLS doesn’t survey this sector. Between October ’16 and October ’17, BLS data show an addition of 2.037 million jobs; about 170,000 per month. Of the total, however, 45% (914,000) came from the B/D Model or more than 76,000 of the 170,000 per month. That means that BLS actually counted 1.123 million new jobs, or 93,600 per month – a far cry from the 170,000 average. I am not disputing the fact that small business adds jobs. What is questionable here, however, is the fact that the B/D Model algorithm is incapable of taking exogenous events, like hurricanes, into account. So, the current data is suspect and probably doesn’t mirror reality. ... "
" ... So if the current fundamentals could have translated to a much lower set of stock market prices if market sentiment, interest rates, fund flows or any number of exogenous factors outside of the companies’ control or your ability to predict were different, then it’s very plausible that the same bottom-up insight about these companies would have mapped to far less spectacular recent market success. Imagine many of these companies’ stocks declining 50% or more tomorrow, to still quite rational prices relative to their fundamental prospects. If that were the case, do you think that Howard Marks’ son’s arguments would have prompted Howard to write the same memo that he did at current prices? I will posit that in the absence of the stock market action of the last few years Howard might not have been writing this exact memo even if company fundamentals were exactly the same. ... "
" ... Undoubtedly, the U.S. economy is experiencing a substantial exogenous shock, which is severely curtailing economic activity and temporarily putting many out of work. This morning’s record numbers of jobless claims point to the carnage wrought by the COVID-19 black swan. And so, a natural impulse is to revert to normalcy as soon as possible. ... "