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" ... Economies work cyclically. When there's a boom, there will eventually be a recession. Businesses that understand this tend to be better prepared to deal with a period where their business slows down. Recessions result in far fewer consumers spending money to buy goods and services. Items that they consider nonessential are the first ones that get cut. Uncertain economic times for consumers means a challenging business atmosphere for companies as well. ... "
" ... Looking Backward to Look Forward: Another way to check value is to look back to previous years of earnings instead of relying on unclear 2020 forecasted earnings. Before Monday’s sharp rally, the so-called cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio—which measures real stock price divided by a 10-year average of real earnings—was significantly lower than it had been earlier this year. While still historically high at 23, it was down from 31 in January, according to an article in Sunday’s New York Times by economist Robert J. Shiller. The historical CAPE average since 1881 is 17. “From this perspective, the market looks on the expensive side, but not inordinately so,” Shiller wrote before Monday’s big gains. “When the CAPE has been at such a level, it tends to show moderate positive, not disastrous, returns over the next 10 years.” Still, Shiller says he worries that current investor anxiety could ultimately lead people to become more risk averse, causing lower valuations for stocks in the long run. ... "
" ... Looking at cyclically sensitive items like consumer durables, clothing, and sensitive services like restaurants, recreation, and transportation, we again observe significant deceleration over the past year: Q1/19: -2.1%, Q4/18: +1.5%, Q3/18: +2.5%, Q2/18: +5.9%. Finally, the GDP price deflator is going the wrong way for the Fed. Again, observe the trend: Q1/19: +0.9%, Q4/18: +1.7%, Q3/18: +1.8%, Q2/18: +3.0%. After this GDP report, markets were convinced that the Fed would have to cut interest rates because their 2% inflation goal was rapidly receding. ... "
" ... One approach that has attracted considerable attention in recent years is adjusting investments based on the CAPE ratio: the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio. This approach was developed by academics Robert Shiller of Yale and John Campbell of Harvard, who apply it to the S&P 500 to give an idea of the overall market’s valuation. ... "
" ... The investing world changed suddenly with Pfizer’s vaccine announcement. “The stock market recently saw a rotation away from large-cap growth companies that have led performance for most of 2020 (such as Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook),” says Guntli, “and toward smaller-capitalization companies as well as more cyclically focused value sectors like energy and financials.” ... "