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" ... 3. Substitution doesn't have to be complete to hurt: you just have to loose the juicy bits to have cash-flows impacted. In fact, most substitutions are partial, at least at first, but they hurt enough to inflict serious damage on the rest of the organization's activities. Ask yourself: "how much of your cash flow could you afford to lose before you would begin to cutback on marketing, R&D or talent-development?" ... "
" ... But I’m here to tell you that your marketing should be at the bottom of your cutback list. ... "
" ... From the survey, the outlook for profits is the most positive since 2002, which was in the middle of a bear market. However, these managers highlighted three major risks that could derail the market’s enthusiasm: 1) a disappointing rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, 2) a cutback in the Fed’s bond buying, and 3) a bursting of the Wall Street bubble. ... "
" ... OPEC just announced a crude cutback of an additional 500,000 barrels. But, the U.S. has moved from a net importer of one million barrels to an exporter of one million barrels. The world’s awash in oil. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon stand a better chance at hitting a $2 trillion market capitalization next five years while Aramco goes through all the motions of being a thriving business, but stands in place as a richly priced piece of paper. ... "
" ... The market dynamics confirm more capital inflow. Why not cutback bond participation and raise equity content? Everyone believes the dollar holds to its strong bull run. So, offshore capital comes stateside. Operators like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, recent and noisy gold bugs, have pulled in their horns. ... "