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" ... For 2021, there will continue to be many opportunities for distressed securities investors because of elevated levels of debt outstanding. The economic recovery is taking place more slowly than many anticipated so, for those firms with tight loan covenants or insufficient liquidity, it will be tough to continue without addressing their liabilities through bankruptcy. The potential for a significant number of bankruptcies this year will therefore likely preset many opportunities for short selling companies as they run out of financing options. ... "
" ... How far Sundial has come since Kuenzlen’s departure! As George explained, "In February 2020, the global pandemic was just emerging, Sundial was running out of cash just two quarters after its IPO, and we were in breach of covenants under the terms of our senior secured credit facility.” ... "
" ... The first is Simon Property Group (SPG), an A-rated REIT that enjoys a strong credit rating and recently closed on the acquisition of Taubman Centers. He cites that SPG debt covenants are well above required levels, and the company has significant headroom. The company had cut its dividend in June from $2.10 a share to $1.30 a share; the payout provides a good cushion while still allowing investors to obtain a very attractive yield. The company also has an extremely attractive valuation based on the P/FF multiple of 10x, compared to the normal (five year) average of 16.5x. ... "
" ... The overall lesson municipal bond investors, both current and prospective, should take from reading these legal proceedings is that all the covenants in an OS, or all laws on the books, will not protect you if any or all of those initial five simple but critical components mentioned in the first paragraph are not present. Of course, covenants and legal protections are factors in the investment decision process: if done properly, they can be structured to create early warnings and some semblance of enforcement capability. But no investor should rely solely on the covenants and enforcement of legal protections to bail them out of trouble. No amount of legalese ever generated a dollar of debt service coverage. ... "
" ... “Our new LBO analysis yields a potential take-out price range of $60-$65, versus our prior analysis of $64-$71,” Mizuho’s Hynes said. “Our analysis takes into account several items including current leverage, composition of existing debt, covenants on the existing debt, the amount of equity likely needed from a sponsor to fund a transaction and how aggressive a plan sponsor is willing to lever up post the transaction. Given the headwinds in retail pharmacy, declining operating profits and potential exposure to opioid litigation, we think it is unlikely private equity would leverage much higher than the ~6x range.” ... "