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" ... Media estimates continue to vary widely with respect to the timing of peak COVID-related health risks globally and on a country-by-country basis in light of ongoing daily fluctuations in case loads and policy response. To model these dynamics with respect to each country’s prior health risk history, we use our past-projected Health Risk data from 31 December 2020 as a counterfactual baseline of country-specific risk trends that we would have observed in the absence of COVID. We then compared these risk trends to our current forecasts to derive country-specific estimates of (1) when health risk will peak relative to each country’s own counterfactual baseline, and (2) when health risk levels implied by our current forecast will “return to baseline,” corresponding to a convergence of our current and past-projected risk trends. ... "
" ... Scott Morton: As I said before, there is no such evidence unless you can specify a counterfactual. Additionally, this phrase "then it is entitled to extract a royalty with respect to all products and services to which the technology pertains" ignores the voluntary FRAND commitment Qualcomm made. That limits its royalty and thereby renders it unnecessary to use chip leverage because a court will happily enforce FRAND. I have never heard of the presumption you claim either. ... "
" ... Since we cannot run a counterfactual experiment to see what would have happened to 16th-century Europe if Luther had never existed, there is no way to know for sure, but there are some suggestive clues. One is Luther's unoriginality, which I made a point of mentioning earlier. Clerics had been posting protests against the church for centuries, often in terms strikingly like Luther's. In the 1380s, for instance, the English priest John Wycliffe had also denounced clerical wealth, insisted that the Scriptures were the only path to knowing God, translated the Bible and questioned the need for priests. Through careful compromise, the church kept a lid on Wycliffe's followers (known as Lollards, or "Mumblers"), but it had less success in the 1420s against followers of the Czech critic Jan Hus. Like Wycliffe and Luther, Hus criticized indulgences and priestly authority while preaching the need for vernacular Bibles. Unlike Wycliffe and Luther, however, he was seized by the authorities, who, after acrimonious debates, burned him at the stake in 1415. Their hard line backfired, and soon some 90 percent of Czechs embraced Hus' doctrines, defeating five papal invasions. Even so, the church did manage to contain the heresy in Bohemia, and in the 1430s it exploited the rebels' internal divisions to work out a compromise. ... "
" ... That is not to say that the four years under Trump have been inconsequential, for example if we consider the counterfactual scenario of a Clinton administration. The latter would have been likely to follow the path set up by Obama as well, but with modifications toward more regulatory oversight and higher environmental standards that U.S. oil and gas production would need to meet. Also, in the longer-term Trump policies can become important for development of oil and gas industry on federal lands given the grandfathered permits issued between 2017 and early 2021. As pointed out earlier, these actions have not immediately resulted in improving the sectors’ conditions beyond what domestic and international markets would have otherwise allowed. And some could even be seen as putting U.S. oil and gas producers at a disadvantage, again, in a short-term. ... "
" ... The process of analyzing our past actions is known as “should counterfactual thinking”, and involves us imagining different outcomes to those that actually occurred. The researchers suggest that while we all engage in some level of self-protective thinking, such as attributing our successes to our own efforts, and failures to external forces, narcissists take it to a whole new level. ... "