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" ... Even as all these considerations continue to encourage the flight from cities to suburbs, they will also create a market-based countercurrent. Unlikely as it seems given history, some local and state governments may see the harmful effects of high taxes as well as rising rates of crime and homelessness and choose real solutions over the useless rhetoric on which these politicians have relied for decades. More significantly, the out migration will make city living more affordable. Already, rents in major urban centers have begun to decline, falling 0.5% over the past year according to a report by the national real estate firm, Zumper. Prices of condominiums have also begun to show weakness. At the same time, the lockdowns have driven businesses away and brought on bankruptcies, putting downward pressure on commercial rents. Some 80% of New York City’s retailers and restaurants are late in their rent. Commercial real estate bids there have fallen to levels not seen since 2011. No doubt other large cities have seen similar movements. Work from home has also begun to reduce the need for urban office space. New York again provides an illustration. According to CBRE, a national commercial real estate service, leasing volumes there have fallen 39% during the past year. ... "
" ... No doubt predictive modeling based on Big Data is still a fledgling space. Yet the above examples did provide at least some evidence of a countercurrent to what most of the polls were simulating. Yet none of the traditional media narratives factored this type of “new” data into their assessments. And this brings us to the second point. ... "