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" ... A painful, prolonged decline in the commodity and energy prices certainly hurt the energy, materials and industrials sectors, and a flat/compressed yield curve did not bode well for financials ̶ the usual suspects of value investing. The effect of interest rates is particularly important. The yield curve determines what the cost of capital is for all companies. If a growth company is not generating free cash flow but exhibits rapid top-line growth, that company’s valuation when projected out 10 or 20 years will benefit from a flat yield curve and low interest rates much more than a value company with plenty of cash on the balance sheet and lower growth. Conversely, companies with low valuations show relative strength when the economy exits a contractionary period during an early recovery phase. The Fed’s signaling of higher rates gives away that regime change. This also marks the periods in favor of value stocks historically. ... "
" ... Look, we had a more or less standard model of macroeconomics when interest rates are near zero — IS-LM in some form. This model said and says that (a) monetary policy is ineffective under these conditions (b) fiscal multipliers are positive and large — in particular, fiscal contraction is strongly contractionary. And these predictions have been borne out! Huge monetary expansion didn’t raise inflation; extreme austerity was strongly correlated with severe economic downturns. ... "
" ... That’s what matters, and that’s why stock markets are declining today. Ultimately it is about confidence, and while measures of consumer confidence remain strong, the weak new orders data show that U.S. producers are actually quite pessimistic. Ultimately, though, lower orders should mean lower production—the ISM’s production index measured 49.1 in November, the fourth consecutive month of a contractionary sub-50 reading—and that will mean fewer jobs, fewer hours worked, and less upward pressure on wages. So, the slowdown in new orders will eventually impact consumer confidence, it is just that there is a lag effect. ... "
" ... The contractionary risk of the tariffs, especially when understood as such a large offset to the economic contribution of tax reform, require a better justification than the mere fire and fury of “trade deficit” talk. ... "
" ... The part of the analysis that fascinates me is something that resonates from what Paul Krugman has been saying about British austerity and economic growth. Some of my countrymen have been saying that sure, Osborne cut government spending in 2010, 2011. Then the economy started to grow again in 2012 and so on. Thus this proves that austerity doesn't permanently hold back economic growth. To which Krugman says, yes, but, we only expect a cut in government spending (or, in this case, a slow down in the predicted rise but with a contraction of the budget deficit at the same time) to affect that period when that austerity is biting. Austerity is contractionary only when policy itself is contractionary from what was happening before. If it then levels out at a lower level of induced aggregate demand then the effect finishes. This is what the Romers are stating in reverse here: ... "