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" ... Big happy professional consensuses have one nasty collateral intellectual effect. They lead to stunning complacency about important issues. Take history, in fact the central events of the 20th century, the Great Depression and World War II. The consensus on gold has done major harm to our understanding of these events. ... "
" ... Scientific consensuses are an important part of any modern society—they tell us the general state of agreement in a field, not so we can blindly obey the experts in question (experts and consensuses can be wrong) but so that we can understand and critically think about those experts’ views. For example, if you are thinking about nutrition, it is a valuable starting point to know where there is general agreement, where there isn’t, and why. If I read a book endorsing a controversial diet, I can’t really have a responsible opinion until I know what most experts in the field think about the issues—including whether they have powerful arguments against the book’s claims that I couldn’t have thought of myself. ... "
" ... Tempur-Sealy expects its products, powerful omnichannel marketing approach, and robust global manufacturing capabilities to help the company perform well in 2021, as well. It guides for a revenue growth of +15% to +20% in fiscal 2021, which works out to a range of $4.23 billion to $4.41 billion, compared to a $3.91 billion consensuses. In addition, the company also expects earnings per share of $2.30 to $2.50 in fiscal 2021, compared to the $1.99 consensus. ... "