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" ... All such ciphering is too simplistic because it doesn’t deal with the zero-sum game between Trump and China over tariffs. Implications of the FRB’s policy emphasis of quarter-pointing us to death for the foreseeable future (yearend 2019) bothers me. Single-handedly, the Fed easily could put the country into recession by pushing up money market rates to 3.5% or more. Big blocks of loans, namely subprime paper and parts of the mortgage market are tied to money market rates. We’re talking trillions upon trillions here. Throw in car loans as well. ... "
" ... On back of the envelope ciphering, both are reasonably priced, assuming no new black swans paddle by. Jamie Dimon has lost his halo. One more major upset and he’s history. Until the London whale caper, analysts pegged JPMorgan at a price-earnings ratio of 10. Never more. ... "
" ... There’s a foolish disparity in all this ciphering. When an Alphabet or Apple disappoints, analysts rarely downgrade recommendations. More likely, they’ll pare price projections by just a couple of bucks on a $1,000 stock. This, of course, is obstinate insanity. ... "