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" ... All stock research is ultimately judged on one metric: the performance of picks. Over the past year, my firm's in-depth research has helped investors avoid blowups and identify top performers. ... "
" ... Another big difference this time around is attitude. Sure, those Twins teams of years past said all of the right things coming into the Bronx, but they often appeared to be rattled. A prime example was six-time All-Star Joe Nathan, one of the best closers of his era whose late-inning playoff blowups against New York are synonymous with those lost series. ... "
" ... High yield debt is always brutally risky and credit blowups (whether they lead to restructuring or full-on bankruptcy) are very painful 100% of the time. But if I’m going to get hit with one of these situations, I’d sure as heck prefer to be a senior secured lender rather than lower-than-dirt bondholder. (Are equity holders lower than bondholders? In theory yes, but in the real world, management holds equity and always finds a way to take care of itself in the restructuring. Exhibit A: Donald Trump, Exhibit B. Me, who was one of many bondholders burned on his casino debt). ... "
" ... Last week, I looked at three of my worst Danger Zone picks from 2020. This week, I’m looking at the blowups successfully predicted during 2020. Casper Sleep (CSPR), Teradata Corporation (TDC), and DoorDash (DASH) are the Danger Zone highlights from 2020. I remain bearish on two of these stocks and am closing one. ... "
" ... What are we getting for a class of economic elites whose expertise does not seem well-suited in aggregate to predicting blowups in credit-default swaps and other exotic derivatives, private startup shares, or tail risk events such as plagues that are cyclical throughout the course of human history? ... "