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" ... For example, a friend recently told me how his financial advisor recommended that he invest in a factor-based investment product. He was presented with all sorts of backtests showing very good returns with little risk of loss. Unfortunately, only a few months after investing, the investment lost 30% of its value and my friend withdrew his money. Just days after this poor outcome, his advisor showed him another set of backtests and statistical data on a different fund that he should consider. ... "
" ... The results of rolling backtests (which examine a lot of independent 3-month holding periods each of which begins on successive Mondays) are depicted in Table 1. ... "
" ... You’d be flying into a rough headwind because with situations like these, history has shown there’s been a lot more heartache than happiness. I did two simple — very simple — 20-year backtests on Portfolio123. One assumed purchase of stocks yielding more than 15%. The other assumed purchase of stocks yielding less than 8%. ... "