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" ... ''6. Inflation expectations are even more "anchored" than economists thought before the crisis. Despite a very large output gap, inflation has been fairly stable at levels only slightly below the Fed's 2% target. This provides a strong refutation of a simple "accelerationist" inflation model, in which this year's inflation is equal to last year's inflation plus a term that depends on the level of the output gap. This implies that there is less risk of outright deflation than one might have thought before the crisis. However, note that the anchoring of expectations cuts both ways; there is less risk of deflation, but also less risk of inflation if the central bank does oversupply monetary stimulus." ... "